A Dog in a Tree

There is a Burundian proverb that roughly translates like this:  "If you see a dog in a tree, then you willl probably find someone nearby who put it there."  That is one of the best quotes I have heard regarding the results of the recent nationwide communal elections that took place this week.

Following election results was the pastime of most of the nation this week as well as many expatriates.  As you know from previous blogs, MCC has been heavily involved in supporting election monitoring this year.  We were really only a small part of a much larger effort, the European Union apparently had about 6000 observers here.  I had mentioned the high stakes involved in having the election appear as fair and transparent by all participants as many former rebel groups cum political parties are being held together in a democratic process by a fragile peace treaty.

The good news is  the report thus far from many observers that there was that voting was peaceful and no obvious fraud or electoral mischief was seen at the polls or counting during the course of the election.  I can also say that the day seemed almost eerily quiet and orderly.  There were no riots, or reports of widespread violence or disruption throughout the country.  The days following have been the same.

But there is something fairly unsettling about the whole event.  It seems that the party in power, reputed to be waning in popularity, won, in the preliminary count, about 80% of the vote in the communes!!  This is curious to say the least.  Stranger still, it seems that about 2.5 million registered voters cast about 4.5 million votes.  Despite this, as I mentioned above, the UN and European Union have reported that no one had observed any wrongdoing as far as the voting itself went.  So all us are left scratching our heads wondering how, in a multiparty system, where at least 5 parties have some power in the country, the ruling party could win such a stunning victory.

By midweek the opposition parties have been asking, pretty much in unity how this is possible.  The most vocal group, the radical hutu FNL even observed in some communes that they even lacked the number of votes to account for the ballots cast by their central committee in the tally.  The independent election commission is behaving suspiciously as well in all of this and has not released the official count yet and seems to be stalling.  And as of Friday, the all the opposition parties are asking that this election be annulled and a new communal election be held at the time of the Presidential election in June.

The problem remains though, no one can explain how a fraud, if there was one, was accomplished without being seen by anyone.  Where were votes added? and how?  It was in this context that an acquaintance of mine, who supports the FNL quoted me the proverb about the dog in the tree.  The question in all of our minds is this:  "How did the dog get in the tree?"  The "independent" election commission at this point is telling us to accept that he climbed up there by himself.  Possible, I suppose, but not very plausible.

Again, at this point, things have been very calm and orderly, no parties are threatening to 'return to the bush' and restart a war, but everyone has a vague sense that somehow, a fraud has been perpetrated. Despite this, the UN and EU and other international groups have given the elections the gold seal of fairness and transparency.

My own expectation is that the ruling party would win, but I am waiting to hear a satisfactory explanation of the result.  (I don't think any American would sit by and accept, without an explanation, an 80 percent majority victory by either party in a single election.)

I am worried by the general problem of the capacity of countries like Burundi to transfer power from one party to another.  At this point it would seem the current President will win another whopping majority in the upcoming Presidential election.  If we follow the history of other African nations, we can expect the Constitution to be changed during this term to allow him to run again in all future election.  (Currently the term limit is 2 five year terms.)  The party will certainly consolidate power as well and become entrenched.  I hope I am wrong about this and would love to be pleasantly surprised that Burundi is a place that makes a relentless effort to pursue truly democratic institutions.  On the good, side, all of what is happening does not seem to be falling along ethnic lines.  The ruling party is hutu, but they have made real efforts to not make ethnicity a central part of their appeal.  This has been evident in policies they have pursued in the past 5 years as well.

I am also concerned, however, about what I perceive to be of an uptick in corruption.  The price of sugar, for example, has suddenly doubled, seemingly inexplicably, and it is in short supply.  Sugar production here is government run, and there has been no crop failure of sugar cane recently.  But the price has gone up for some reason related to some shenanigans that I don't quite understand.  But someone seems to be raising capital for something.  (I won't mention the rumors here, or probably the truth if and when I know it.)

As Christians here, we, as part of our churches and small groups, have been praying (and fasting) for a peaceful election process.  At this point Christians are perplexed about how to feel.  On the one hand, the process has been extremely calm, even through this period of protest and appeal.  But the results have not given anyone much reason to rejoice just yet.

So that is my person impression of the election process. My disclaimer is that I am not claiming to be a reliable source of news and information, just an observer.

Another observation, I have made of late is that we have not had rain for about 2 weeks.  I know this to be the unmistakable sign that we are creeping once again into the dry season.  My least favorite time in Burundi.  While, generally it is warm here, and temperatures never really go about 93 degrees fahrenheit, this is generally the hottest time of year, with days in the low 90s and nights in the high 70s.  And then there is the dust.  Our poor cleaner Odifax has to mop the entire house, every square inch once per week and he still cannot keep up with the dust that covers everything.  (We have to keep the house open as we do not have air-conditioning.)  The other sad thing about this season is that it is marked by haze that completely hides the mountain ranges around us.  I will be sad to see the majestic range across the Lake in Congo disappear once again into obscurity for 3 or more months.

Many Burundians complain that this seasonal transition is particularly marked by illness, and that has certainly been true in our family.  I am been trying to get rid of a sort of sore throat and flu virus for 2 weeks now, and Rebecca has just come down with it yesterday.

The weekend was fairly quiet as a result as we laid low on Saturday.  On Sunday we did go to church and then briefly to the beach, but then we came home and Rebecca went to bed and I took the kids to Ubuntu for our weekly pizza date, this time with Travis and Astrud's family.  We again, were treated to watching a family of 5 hippos come up and graze in the marsh on the other side of the wall facing the lake.  It is awesome, like a free safari.

I did not say much about the rest of the week and it honestly did not have many high or low lights.  I feel like we have been in a kind of post-electoral haze, listening to every report and rumor that comes down the pike, hungry for some facts and a good explanation of what has happened.  I am getting used to the fact though, that 'explaining' is not a real cultural value here, and we may need to be at peace with being 'in the dark' for quite some time.